I recently ran across a Gartner report regarding trends in x86 virtualization. In the “taxonomy” section (said with nose raised and pinky high), I found the following:
Hosted Virtual Desktops
An HVD is a full, thick-client user environment (OS and applications) run as a VM on a server and accessed remotely through a window on a remote device. All software execution takes place on the server where the VM is hosted, and only the presentation layer for the VM is sent to the remote device. Access can be via a browser window, remote session on a PC or thin client device.
The Digerati at Gartner hold HVD as the Next Big Thing in virtualization between now and 2014. Assuming they are correct, and I think they are, we will have arrived once again back where we started in the 1970s – centralized computing, albeit way more powerful from an end-user’s perspective. In every computer technology cycle, the cost and complexity of managing distributed technology causes infrastructure to collapse under it’s own weight, after which the cycle trends back to centralization. Web and Cloud are just the latest words for the centralized models that re-emerged after the distributed client/server phase of the 90′s crushed support staff, budgets, and productivity. MBA translation: Poor ROI.
Every incarnation of centralized computing brings with it a new level of complexity, but the advantage is that the complexity must be managed in fewer places, and changes can deployed much more quickly. Anyone who’s ever been involved in software distribution knows the joys of having to change something in just one place on a server versus 10,000 PC endpoints. Server virtualization and HVD, however, up the complexity ante quite a bit, as it implies managing an ever-increasing number of machine images and infrastructure resources.
When choosing virtualization technology, it’s wise to be mindful of the complexity factor. It’s not about the hypervisor anymore – the technology that makes virtualization happen – that’s approaching zero cost as vendors increasingly make it part of the hardware layer. The real value (and increasing cost) is in software that can manage the complexity of dozens, hundreds, or thousands (HVD) of VMs. If you’re purchasing virtualization technology for in-house use, be sure to shop for good tools. The tools make the difference. VMWare currently leads the pack, but others such as BMC, Akorri, ManageIQ, Oracle-Sun, etc, continue to improve.
If you are moving to an outsourced cloud model, you’re probably best served by choosing a provider using VMWare. Among hosting companies, VMware seems to be achieving “Coin of the Realm” status in that it is the most common platform being deployed. The upshot is that if one hosting company lets you down, you can pack up your VMDK files and take them somewhere else. If on the other hand you pick a proprietary cloud (e.g. Amazon) and it doesn’t work out, your options are not very attractive.
Some form of centralized computing is clearly always going to be with us. Back in a previous version of the technology cycle, my preference was a 4-color 3279 terminal running in mod4 mode. Wonder if there’s an emulator for my iPhone? I may soon need it.
//spk
